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Basketball / Jayhawks, predictions, bracketometry

18 March 2008 in basketball, kansas basketball | No comments

Man, this year is going to be good, not only because the teams are good, but because there are good stories out there. I tell myself that I don’t care about storylines, but at some point, I absorb them. I repeat them. They become part of my conversations. All the extraneous detail from those player mini-profiles being produced by CBS will become cement itself in my memory; like Mateen Cleaves’ from 2000 tournament: his storied high school career in Michigan, his drunken driving, the tough love of father-figure/coach Tom Izzo. Why do I remember this? Why do I care? Who knows?

As Dick Vitale would say: It’s March Madness, baby!

Let’s start at the top

Memphis is the rarely defeated team with killer athletes and a dickhead for a coach; North Carolina has player of the year Tyler Hansborough and the electrifying “Carolina break” (formerly known as the Kansas break), but it’s also got some glaring inconsistencies; UCLA has good balance, a great coach, good defense, and a stone killer in freshman Kevin Love; Kansas has experience, Darnell Jackson, and a recent history of flameouts [cf. Bucknell, Bradley] to overcome.

Mid-major blah blah blah

As usual, there are also a host of mid-major teams with chips on their shoulders. Butler had Florida on the ropes last year; this year, they have to travel to Birmingham as a #7 seed to play South Alabama (a #10 seed); if they win, they earn the right to play another fired-up southeastern team, Tennessee. And Gonzaga (#7) has to travel three time zones to play a team that’s driving three hours within its home state, Davidson (#10). It appears that the tournament committee is no longer amused by fundamentally sound, deeply experienced, singularly focused mid-major teams taking down high seeds in the early rounds. An interesting development.

Mid-major dis disclaimer

By dissing mid-majors, you think I’m playing with fire, but I’m not. Oh, no. I’ve already been burned. Twice. There’s nothing left to burn. I’m a blackened husk. It began in 2006; I wrote a long email about “the myth of mid-majors” to my friends. Then, I traveled to Austin, where I watched the the Jayhawks mail in a first-round game against Bucknell. Unfortunately, someone forgot to tell Bucknell that they were supposed to climb inside the envelope and disappear. To the delight of the entire bar from which I watched, they held off the Jayhawks and advanced. The next year, it was Bradley. I was in a hotel in Albuquerque. Alone. Agonizing.

Kansas & UNC earn a right to stay close to home

Both teams get to stay local, but each gets tested by an interesting foe. UNC doesn’t leave the state until they travel to San Antonio for the Final Four, but they need to beat Tennessee — a team that beat Memphis, a team with a legitimate claim to a #1 seed — before they get to San Antonio. Kansas tours the Midwest, heading to Omaha, then Detroit, but they need to beat Georgetown — a consistent, gritty team that is well-suited to stick it to the inconsistent Jayhawks — before cutting down the regional nets. Seems fair, mostly.

But does this obsessing over geography really matter? I don’t know. On a purely philosophical level, the champion has to win six games, period. Georgia won four games in three days to take the SEC tournament; they’d won a total of four games in two-plus months of conference play. The Fab 5 advanced to the Final Four through Atlanta and Lexington in 1992, Phoenix and Seattle in 1993.

On a historical note

Last year, Kansas got shipped two time zones westward and played what amounted to an away game against UCLA. I was there, surrounded by cologne-wearing, hair-gelled, Steve-Lavin-look-alike douchebags who roared with every impossible fadeaway prayer hit by Arron Afflalo (not misspelled), and every brass-balled pull-up j by Darren Collison. It has taken me some time to admit that UCLA may have been the better team, a fact that wasn’t made any more comforting by Bill Walton’s pod-rhapsody about the beauty of UCLA’s win [mp3]. The tournament committee’s calculus: Kansas wasn’t a clear #1 seed, so they needed to travel across the country to beat UCLA in their back yard in order to prove they belong in the Final Four. Which brings me to this year’s Memphis team.

This year, Memphis gets sent through the fire

Don’t you get the feeling that the tournament committee smells blood with Memphis? The Tigers were ranked #1 for a lot of the year, and they lost just ONE game all year. Except. Except they have the misfortune of playing in a weak conference, and their one loss happened to come at home against a team that got its ass handed to them by Texas. For this, they get sent to Houston for the South regional final, where they may in fact meet up with Texas. (Is there any way that the crowd won’t be heavily pro-Horn?) The tournament committee is clearly saying: Show us what you’ve got, Derrick Rose and Joey Dorsey. Show up what you got, John Calipari! [Here it is again. John Cheney threatens to kill John Calipari. Thank you, YouTube]. Who knows? Maybe it’s a sort of karmic payback for Dorsey referring to himself as Goliath, with Greg Oden as David during last year’s tournament. Dude, if you’re Goliath, then survive this rock-slinging gauntlet.

Rick Barnes can recruit, but can the dude coach?

Two things I noticed about Barnes during the Big 12 final: (1) The guy either can’t consistently set up a decent play off a dead ball, or his players just can’t execute one. I find it hard to believe that DJ Augustin, one of the most talented players I’ve seen in a long time, can’t execute a play. So I’m left with the impression that Barnes is just a bad game-planner. Too many times, his team came out of a timeout with some crap play that resulted in a bad shot or turnover. Augustin can often bail Barnes out by hitting lots of bad shots, but how far can this take them, really? (2) Even worse, Barnes rides his stars, and they suffer against deeper teams. Augustin played all 40 minutes in the Big 12 tournament final and he averaged 39+ for the season. He finished with 20 points, scoring only 2 in the second half and missing all nine shots that he took. AJ Abrams is no help; he can spot up and drain threes, but he’s my size and needs to run off a bunch of screens to get an open shot, and therefore he does little to ease the burden on Augustin.

Ol Roy on the horizon for the Jayhawks

While I love all of this, I’m also focused on the prospects of my team. To paraphrase a once-great Kansan, I could (mostly) give a shit about storylines. As a Kansas fan, I’m primarily worried about Portland State breaking new ground as a #16 seed. Let’s take care of that one. Then I’m worried about UNLV; then Clemson; then Georgetown. Then: Ol Roy?

In the Final Four, there’s the potential for some great, great match-ups, which I’ll detail in another post. Too much needs to happen between now and then.

Kansas basketball / Post-Julian thoughts

10 April 2007 in basketball, kansas basketball | No comments

Julian Wright is taking the opportunity of a lifetime, and who can blame him? He brought enthusiasm and energy to every game, contributed hugely in many of the big wins in the last couple of years (cf. these dunks during the Florida game and this epic 33-point performance at MU), and showed enough skill and potential to be very highly regarded by NBA scouts. Who wouldn’t seize a chance to be financially secure, and to play in the NBA? The future is rarely certain in these situations, as these guys can attest. Best of luck to you, JuJu.

The KU-sports-related Internet is (predictably) thrashing around with the news, and the emotions range from hurt to happy, fatalistic to optimistic. And who can blame them, really? The last four years have been tough on Kansas basketball, so tough that the mention of certain names — Roy, Micah, Padgett, Galindo, Giddens, CJ, etc — can provoke pangs and spasms of hurt and guilt. I guess Julian gets added to the list now, though personally I think he’s ready and I’m happy for him. Most of the commenters at the end of this story feel otherwise.

Julian’s departure is complicated, of course, by the fact that he pledged to stay following the loss to UCLA. This CBS reporter was really peeved that Julian reconsidered his prospects after the season ended, which seems kinda silly to me. Did it really take Julian’s change of heart to communicate to him that big-time college sports are bittersweet, unpredictable, and perpetually compromised by the twin prospects of major, life-changing injuries and major, life-changing paydays?

Whatever happens, I think that Julian will eventually have a good NBA career. Ryan Greene of kusports.com compares Julian to Shawn Marion, and I see the resemblance as well. That said, he would be way better off with established, veteran-heavy teams like Phoenix (who wouldn’t?) or Chicago, where he’d be able to learn and adjust out of the spotlight. Career-endangering teams like Memphis, Atlanta or (once again) Sacramento will give him too much responsibility too soon, though he may be able to survive that either way. Long term, he’s a Western Conference player who will come off the bench, get his 12 and 8, continue do all the little stuff that makes him great (deflecting passes, setting other guys up, keeping offensive rebounds alive), and be a good team guy to boot.

The bright sides

Looking forward to next November, here are three scenarios that reflect my thinking on the remaining possibilities for early entries and (yikes, not again!) transfers.

Without Wright: Actually may be better. Like Drew Gooden’s early exit, I actually think there’s quite a significant bright side here. Julian’s athletic ability and talent require that he play a major role in the offense, which results in fewer opportunities for the talents of other players — Mario’s drives and shots, Sherron’s shot and drive, Rush’s entire offensive arsenal, Shady’s sweet moves inside 12 feet. When Gooden left, Collison’s McHale-like low-post presence and Hinrich’s Stockton-like ability to make the right decision on every fast break ended up providing a system more stable than the one focused on Gooden’s always athletic, sometimes erratic presence. Without Julian at the 4, Shady starts and gets more time. This means that the line-up gets bulkier without losing that much in the way of speed. They’ll miss Julian’s explosiveness and shot-blocking, but they gain Shady’s sweet touch and better ability to (more dependably) make plays while posting up. If Rush is still around (not likely, so see the bullet point below), I tend to think that this line-up may even be more dangerous than if Wright had stuck around.
Without Wright and Rush: Lots of re-jiggering, lots of uncertainty. Losing Rush is a much bigger deal than losing Wright, obviously. He’s the team’s best on-the-ball defender; he became the go-to scorer during the games in San Jose, and he can stroke it. Unfortunately for him, he’s not the explosive athlete that Julian is, and scouts are not evaluating his draftability in the crystal-ballish terms of upside and potential. His capacity is known, apparently, and therefore it has limits in the eyes of scouts. Does this mean he can’t become, say, a Bruce Bowen type of player? Heck no. In fact, I think he’d fit in really well with the type of team who would draft him in the 20’s or so. And this is probably what will happen, so it all works out for the best, for him. If money and academics (which are a major hassle for him) were not issues, he’s in a great position to thrive next season. He fits into Self’s system really well; he really began to shine at the end of the season; another season would really give him a chance to refine his dribble-drive and his outside shot. But this is not an ideal world, and barring the entry of the entire UNC team or an injury that prevents him from competing in the pre-draft camps, I suspect he’s gone. Good luck to him.
So. How do the Hawks replace Brandon? Who becomes the stopper? Who takes over the offense at the end of games? Who attracts the other team’s defenders whenever he’s on the floor? I’m not really sure about any of this. A couple of things are certain, though: This will be a seasoned, capable team. They’ve been through a lot, beaten Kevin Durant twice, won two Big 12 tournaments, etc. Moreover, they’ll be without a superstar like Brandon and Julian, and this — weirdly — might make them much more like Self’s Illinois teams — gritty, hungry, scrappy and dangerous in the tournament.
Without Wright, Rush, and Collins: !@$#%$#@*&. Almost too painful to consider. How many times did I text the words “Thank God for Sherron” during the Big 12 season? How many times did he single-handedly change the pace and momentum of a game with a vicious drive to the basket? He’s not ready to jump to the League, but rumor has it that he wants to be closer to home. But would he really want to sit out a year, play for a school in a mid-major conference, give up a chance to play in a Final Four, give up a chance to play on national television for 15 – 20 or 20 – 25 games next year? I really hope not. Man, that would hurt.

Pre-post-season thoughts / Containing Kevin Durant

5 March 2007 in basketball, kansas basketball | No comments

In a previous post, I suggested that the Kansas defense must “contain” Kevin Durant, thereby implying that Kevin Durant could, in fact, be contained. I said: “he’s going to get 10 – 15 points no matter what you do,” and anything in excess of that was a matter of the opposing team’s defense shutting him down. Against Kansas on Saturday, he rattled off 12 points in a row between the 17:41 and the 14:14 marks in the first half, and had 20 points just five minutes later. (Thanks to ESPN’s play-by-play for this). And it wasn’t like the Texas offense was getting him a lot of open looks: He was burying every shot, no matter who was guarding him and no matter where he was on the court. 22 feet away, Julian Wright’s hand in his face: Rattled in. Pulling up from 27 feet at the tail end of a fast break: Swish. Texas didn’t even need to run an offense, they just needed to get him the ball and then worry about getting back and playing defense. In the first half, this worked.

In the second half, different story. Two things changed (at least): Brandon Rush was on Durant, rather than Julian Wright. It was hard to say whether Durant just cooled off, or whether Rush cooled him off, but the fact was that he missed 4 of 5 shots before going down with a twisted ankle. Second thing: Another player immediately double-teamed Durant on the perimeter whenever he got the ball, and Texas failed to exploit this for easy low-post baskets. (Nice call by Coach Self. Not sure why he didn’t go to this earlier, but I’m just glad that it worked). At the same time, I can’t believe Texas couldn’t exploit this. I mean, teams must be doing this all the time. Why weren’t they able to find Damian James for easy baskets underneath, or Augustin on cuts to the basket? (I share Bill Simmons’s assessment of Texas coach Rick Barnes, by the way: “How can you not run more plays for Kevin Durant? Post him up and he has 27 different ways to score. Curl him off picks and he makes 15-footers like they’re layups.”)

Speaking of bad coaching, I was mystified that Texas didn’t start fouling sooner. Kansas wasn’t even in the bonus until the 2:20 mark, and Texas didn’t start fouling until the 1:18 mark when they were down by 8. RussRob missed the front-end of a one-and-one, and Texas cut the lead to 6. Then, on consecutive possessions, Mario makes one of two; RussRob makes one of two; Julian makes one of two. HEART ATTACK TIME. Instead of a 6-point lead, it’s a 3-point lead, and Texas has a chance to tie. This is a huge, huge issue going into the post-season, both for the Hawks chances and my own physical and mental health.

Incidentally, with this in mind, I deeply enjoyed a recent piece by Gene Weingarten about FT shooting: “If I took a year off and practiced all day, every day, I could then defeat the NBA’s best free-throw shooter in head-to-head competition” (via kottke).

Big Saturday / KU-UT thoughts and predictions

1 March 2007 in basketball, kansas basketball | 1 comment

Watching the Longhorns repeatedly (and ultimately successfully) drive a stake into the heart of Acie Law IV last night, I got to thinking about Saturday’s showdown between the Longhorns and the Hawks. (I also penciled in A&M for the Final Four. Is there any team in the nation — other than UCLA, I guess — that has such a perfect blend of March-ready qualities — go-to guy, great defense, grit, gumption? Totally g’ed up). Anyway, here’s the big stuff that KU has to address:

Contain Kevin Durant. I know, I know. Obvious. Duh. Everyone tries to do this. But I think Kansas has a chance to succeed. Yes, he’s going to get 10 – 15 points no matter what you do. He’ll be everywhere — around the basket, out on the perimeter, getting put-backs, rolling off picks and taking jumpers. The challenge for the Hawks is to make sure he doesn’t get 30 – 35, to limit the number of open looks he gets on the perimeter, and to make sure that he doesn’t get anywhere near a rhythm like he had against Texas Tech (37 points, 23 rebounds). Durant thrives when teams don’t have someone who can get in his face when he’s away from the basket. At 6’9″, he’s going to shoot over the kind of guy who will take away the drive, but he’s also fast and agile enough to go around most guys his size. All of that said, I think he’s going to have problems with KU’s long, fast, and highly disruptive defenders — Julian Wright and Brandon Rush. I think it’s totally possible for them to contain him, as long as they stay out of foul trouble.

Disrupt the supply chain. DJ Augustin kept them in the game last night when Durant went into a funk. In many games this year, I’ve seen him slice through defenses, get to the basket, and generally create the kind of chaos that leads to easy put-backs for Durant. Mario Chalmers, Russell Robinson, and Sherron Collins have to keep him from driving, and complicate his distribution of the ball.

Run them ragged, and don’t get beat by AJ Abrams. Or anyone like him. Last year, the relatively quiet Abrams exploded for four three-pointers during a first half run, singlehandedly demoralizing the Hawks. The good news is that, this year, the Longhorn weaponry is far from secret. Abrams, Augustin and Durant play pretty much all game, every game. This is an opportunity for the relatively deep Hawks to be relentless in their defense — Maybe even press a little? C’mon, Coach. Gimmick defenses have stunned KU twice recently (A&M, OU). Why not break one out once in a while?

Making free throws. The mere thought that this game will come down to free throws makes my stomach hurt. The last five minutes of the Oklahoma game was excruciating in that it almost turned into A&M, Part II. Unfortunately, it’s no secret that Kansas can’t shoot free throws. They’re going to get fouled late in the game; with any luck, Chalmers and Robinson will control the ball and hit their freebies.

Lastly, Collins and Arthur must contribute, and Rush has to get his shots. It’s pretty amazing that the Hawks could get by OU without contributions from any of these guys, but there’s no way that a win versus Texas is possible without them.

Kansas City / Home for the holidays

8 January 2007 in kansas city, the ancient past | No comments

I love Flickr, but the good times are killing me. It’s got too many amazing high-def and beautifully composed photos. How do they do it? After doing some research, I decided to step up my game and picked up a fancypants camera. Above is one of the first pictures I took with it, a panorama of downtown Kansas City from the Liberty Memorial. The bent horizon is the result of a cheap-o fish-eye attachment that I bought on Amazon. I used the 30D/fish-eye setup throughout the holidays, as you’ll see in this set, and while I had fun, I also had the inevitable realization that an equipment upgrade doesn’t automatically result in glorious, high-def photos. Back to the drawing board. Or the dark room. Or the Internet forums.

While I was in KC, I sampled some of its finest. I visited some homegrown letterpress printers (Hammerpress), ate some legendary BBQ (Fiorella’s Jack Stack in Martin City and Gates on Main), and made a pilgrimage to a basketball temple (Allen Fieldhouse, to witness KU’s run-and-gun thumping of Boston College). All in all, a merry and bright time.

Kansas basketball / Jitters, a jinx, and a stinging loss

17 November 2006 in kansas basketball | No comments

Question: What happens when a young college basketball team without a proven low-post presence somehow manages to secure a high national ranking then faces a really hungry, experienced team? The Hawks found out two nights ago, getting their rear-ends tanned by an unheralded and obviously hungry Oral Roberts team.

Where does this rank among the hardest-to-swallow losses in recent memory? I don’t want to go overboard here; it’s not as crushing as the two NCAA Tournament early exits. It also wasn’t as demoralizing as losing to K-State (at home) and Missouri (after leading by 7 with a little over a minute left) last year. It’s most reminscent of the 2004 home loss to Richmond, when the entire sporting nation could turn on ESPN to see the Hawks implode on their home floor to a team that wasn’t even playing that well. ESPN didn’t carry the ORU game on Wednesday night, THANK GOD, but the loss rippled through the sports press in a way that always seemed to emphasize the Hawks simply failed to look, umm, good. SI said simply: “Oral Roberts outplayed No. 3 Kansas the whole way.”

Question: How in the world does SI rank KU above a team like Florida, the defending national champions who returned every starter from last year? Did they want to avoid jinxing Florida for some reason? (SI added KU to its list of cover jinxes). Maybe they settled on this arrangement before Sasha Kaun got hurt, and before CJ Giles pulled a Lawrence Phillips and got himself kicked off the team?[1] Even so, how does any front line arrangement compete with Gator paint-dominators Al Horford and Joakim Noah? We’ll find out soon enough, I guess, since the teams will meet a week from tomorrow in Vegas. Gulp.

[1] Wikipedia’s abstract on Lawrence Phillips: “Lawrence Phillips (b. May 12, 1975 in Little Rock, Arkansas), is a former professional American football and Canadian football running back who has had numerous conflicts with law enforcement.” Sorta says it all.